Twins' Playoff Hopes Dwindling Amid Struggles
At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a heart-wrenching defeat, blowing a three-run lead to lose 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax surrendered a decisive two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth, sealing the fate of a team that appears to be spiraling downward.
The loss signifies a troubling trend for the Twins, who have dropped 18 of their last 27 games. Clinging to the third AL wild-card spot, their lead has shrunk to a precarious 1 1/2 games. As of September 5, FanGraphs had the Twins' postseason odds at a robust 95.4%, a figure that has since plummeted to 76.4%. The team’s current performance brings shadows of doubt over their October aspirations.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," Pablo López voiced the sentiments of a squad on edge.
Much of the Twins' recent woes can be attributed to a faltering offense. In 12 of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, the team is batting a mere .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, their hitting average drops to .272, placing them among the league's worst in such situations. Coach Rocco Baldelli emphasized the need for consistency, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Max Kepler's anticipated return brings a glimmer of hope, but the challenges are multifaceted. The bullpen, once a sturdy pillar with a 3.84 ERA and a top-tier win probability added (plus-3.41) over their first 123 games, has struggled significantly. In their recent 27-game skid, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Griffin Jax, reflecting on the wear and tear, said, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff." The pitching struggles extend beyond the bullpen. The rest of the rotation has posted a dismal 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games, averaging just 4.38 innings per start.
Despite their struggles, the Twins have shown moments of resilience. They had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. This underscores a volatile but potentially salvageable situation.
The Twins recently bolstered their pitching by claiming lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, offers a fresh arm and versatility. Derek Falvey explained the strategic addition, saying, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The road ahead is challenging, with the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners trailing just two games behind the Twins in the standings. Fortunately, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, a small but vital buffer as the playoff race heats up. Notably, the Tigers have been formidable, winning 23 of their last 33 games.
In the meantime, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa's recent performance offers a silver lining. Together, they are 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, indicating a potential uptick in form. Yet, the broader team dynamics and collective resolve will be crucial. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," said a reflective Rocco Baldelli.
It's a critical juncture for Minnesota, facing mounting pressures and waning postseason odds. Yet, in baseball's unpredictable realm, a resurgence is never out of reach. For now, each game offers a new chapter in the Twins' quest to reassert themselves as a playoff contender.