Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team depends heavily on strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. With the 2023-2024 NBA season on the horizon, fantasy managers are once again evaluating their top picks, relying on player performance insights from previous seasons to guide their decisions.
The importance of consistent production from key players cannot be overstated, especially those selected beyond the top draft picks. Joel Embiid stands out as a prime example. Projected to average more than 60 fantasy points per game, Embiid had an impressive 61 fantasy points per game last season. However, his durability remains a concern – he has never played more than 68 games in a season and managed only 39 games last year. Balancing Embiid's potential high return with the risk of limited games will be crucial for managers.
In stark contrast, Nikola Jokic embodies reliability. Playing 79 games last season, Jokic has never played fewer than 69 games in his career, making him a safer bet for consistent fantasy production. His durability combined with high performance makes him one of the most coveted assets in fantasy basketball.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers offer another interesting case study. LeBron played 71 games last season, while Davis participated in 76 games, demonstrating solid availability. However, the past three seasons tell a grimmer tale, with James averaging 52 games and Davis only 44 games per season. As LeBron turns 40 this season, age and wear-and-tear further complicate his fantasy outlook. Meanwhile, Davis's history of playing more than 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career adds to the unpredictability.
Ja Morant's profile adds another layer to the fantasy managers' decision-making matrix. The young star missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury but boasted averages of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons. Now 25 years old, Morant's upside is tremendous if he can stay on the court.
As Kevin Durant enters his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, questions about longevity arise. Despite playing 75 games last season, his advancing age will be a point of consideration. Fellow veteran Kyrie Irving's situation is equally complex. While Irving's performance metrics—26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT% over the last five seasons—are stellar, his availability has been less so, averaging just 44.2 games per season in that span. His ranking of 22nd in fantasy points per game last season juxtaposed with his 47th ranking in total fantasy points highlights the impact of his frequent absences.
Zion Williamson, often discussed in terms of potential, has been a perennial talking point. Between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, he averaged impressive stats—26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG—yet played in just 90 of 236 possible games. However, playing a career-high 70 games last season and having a 27.1 PPG average over a late-season 10-game stretch may indicate a turning point in his availability streak.
Kawhi Leonard's situation with the Clippers is equally critical to note. Despite playing 68 games last season and achieving the 27th-most fantasy points in the league, Leonard's knee issues caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs. His health remains a significant factor in his fantasy valuation.
As the draft approaches, fantasy managers face intricate choices shaped by each player's balance of potential high scoring and risks of injury or limited games. The blend of past performances and longevity concerns will guide strategies, underscoring the need for calculated decisions to craft a winning fantasy team.