A Grim Statistical History
Teams that gain a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically maintained an almost unbeatable record, winning 27 out of 28 series. The only exception came in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs defied the odds to rally and defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, an overwhelming 20 concluded in sweeps.
The Panthers are currently aiming to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to force the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, history still paints a bleak picture; 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite these daunting odds, the Oilers maintain their belief in a comeback.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers have hit a rough patch, currently standing at 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed signs of life in the third period of Thursday's game, with gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod narrowing the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were trailing 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers' undoing took place in a demoralizing 6:19 stretch in the second period. Within this span, Florida scored three back-to-back goals. Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal when a turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the home crowd at 9:12. Solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk led to another turnover by Darnell Nurse, which Sam Bennett converted for his seventh goal of the playoffs at 13:57. Aleksander Barkov capped the devastating sequence for Florida at 15:31 by converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to develop from deep inside their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Mistakes have been piling up for Edmonton, and regrettably, the same can't be said for goals from their star players. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have managed to find the net, but Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—the Oilers' top scorers in the playoffs—have yet to score. Notably, these five players also run Edmonton's power play, which has been utterly stymied by Florida's penalty kill, going 0-for-10 in the series.
Before this series, Edmonton's power play was clicking at an impressive rate of over 37%, the best in the postseason. Although McDavid has made it onto the scoresheet with assists on three of Edmonton's four goals in the series, the team's overall performance has been lackluster. McDavid is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's postseason goals, following in the footsteps of Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. However, the other key players have yet to register a single point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The gravity of the situation has not been lost on Edmonton's players and coaching staff.
"It's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well, but I just can't seem to get anything going. So, yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," Draisaitl added.
Stuart Skinner acknowledged the challenges but remained optimistic, stating, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch emphasized the team's belief in their abilities, saying, "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just saying, 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch also stressed the importance of maintaining morale: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner lamented the team's missed opportunities: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl summarized the team's current predicament bluntly: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just, when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."